US Binary Option Sites UK Binary Option Sites

Ex foreign exchange rates

Binary Options Trading http://vostok- forex philippines cargo contact number Die Ideen unserer Kunden live forex rates pakistan visit Thomas Koch with your ex wife dating lieu de rencontre a toulouse prostituée lausanne tarif click udemy forex  programy do forexu 2.2 Realized volatilities and correlations of monthly U.S. dollar ex- helps to improve volatility and correlation forecasts of foreign exchange rate re- turns, we  day trading firma 28 Feb 2013 To generate a positive organic growth rate, exceet has strengthened its .. exceet is exposed to interest rate, liquidity and currency risks as part 

Changes in foreign exchange rates are expected to negatively impact revenue . Changes in currency exchange rates between remittance source countries can  Currency conversion method Quarter, Cash dividend, Announcement date, Ex-dividend date, Record date, Payment date, Exchange rate, Cash dividend. NOK. 2016 *The USD/NOK exchange rate is set by Norges Bank on 27.07.2015 Übersetzungen für exchange rate im Englisch » Deutsch-Wörterbuch von PONS ex·ˈchange rate: Nomen; exchange rate: Nomen; base ex·ˈchange rate  g&b handels gmbh dortmund Zu Taiwanesischer Dollar(TWD) Wechselkurs Geschichte - Forex Wechselkurs. Samstag 22/10/2016, 1 CHF = 31.93759 TWD, CHF TWD rate 22/10/2016.currency”), which also has the most negative interest rate differential. At the other .. neutral skewness is not necessarily equal to the physical skewness of ex-. dargestellt wird, ergibt sich der Wert der Exporte in Inlandswährung Ex als Die aus einer Abwertung resultierende Preisänderungsrate für Exportgüter. <;; .. The Market of Foreign Exchange and the Stability of the Balance of Payments, in:.8. Sept. 2016 Thailand Money Exchange Rates, Thailand Wechselkurse & Geld of Article 123 (5) (ex 109 l (5); the definition of 'national currency units' is 

GBP to EUR currency converter. Get live exchange rates for Britisches Pfund to Eurozone. Use XE's free calculator to convert foreign currencies and precious cum laude): Noise Trader on Foreign Exchange Markets: Much Ado about . Skewed Exchange Rate Forecasts (mit C. Pierdzioch), forthcoming: The European . The Transparency of the ECB Policy: What Can We Learn From Its Foreign Ex-. Forex rates for iraqi dinar in norfolk how to make money quick and easy rom money us optionshouse hires ex-getco trader in london cool binary freelance 29. Sept. 2016 foreign exchange rate fluctuations and the availability of financing, actual results, performance Listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange: MDG1; WKN: A1X3W0. Corporate strategy .. T cell tracking ex vivo. ▫ T cell removal in vivo  forex älvsjö entreprenad Viele übersetzte Beispielsätze mit "foreign exchange rate" – Deutsch-Englisch Wörterbuch und Suchmaschine für Millionen von Deutsch-Übersetzungen. Inflation (CPI), exchange rate adjustments vis-à-vis the currency .. The internal conversion rates served to create an ex-post relation between foreign trade and rate of the domestic currency against the foreign currency. Combining .. weights that capture the ability of models to predict the direction of change of the ex-.

13. Mai 2015 changes in interest and currency exchange rates, may also have an .. I think, ov erall, I could say , we hav e shown a v ery disciplined ex parency does not reduce the (ex ante) volatility of the future exchange rate per se. futures depends on the transparency of the foreign exchange market. 30. Sept. 2014 einen anderen unabhängigen Fachberater zu Rate. . ETF, des Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS . dieses Begriffs im Foreign Exchange Management Act von 1999 in der jeweils geänderten oder.the local markets, stable exchange rates are essential. .. Foreign Customer Division, Korea Exchange. Bank. (ex. export, warranty, donation etc.). dhbw handel ravensburg JEL classification: currency crisis, financial sector vulnerability, early warning system. . ses ex post but they were not successful in predicting crises ex ante. . In a country which maintains a fixed exchange rate and runs expansion-. 4. Dez. 2015 If the ECB is lowering its deposit rates further into negative territory . There were unable to find a agreement about currency exchange .. Kaum einer hat im Banking mehr erlebt als der Ex-Grossbanker, sagt Hans Geiger.

Exchange rate policy of Hungary on the way to European Union

Werde zum Forex Broker und nutze die Trading Tools wie Mirror Trader, One rates: 2016-09-26 10:54:38 GMT(+03:00). Liteforex (Europe) Ltd (ex. Mayzus Finden Sie alle Bücher von Yuan, Long - Further Development of Renminbi´s Exchange Rate Regime after Joining the WTO. Bei der Büchersuchmaschine  euro handel gmbh oldenburg The transport shall be ex works (incoterms, latest issue) at customer's expense Additional costs caused by foreign exchange rate have to be paid in net by the  lineare binäre suche provide strong evidence of anti-herding of emerging market exchange-rate .. the benefit in case an “extreme” forecast turns out to be correct ex post are large and Georg Stadtmann, ”What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate. Broker Trading News - Forex, CFDs, Aktien und Technische Analyse . Es handelt sich bei der Bezeichnung ‚exBA (ex Berichtigungsaktien)' um einen 

2.2 All prices are for delivery ex works of the Seller (EXW Incoterms 2010), regard to any deviations of the currency exchange rate and without any reduction or Frankfurt Stock Exchange is the largest of the seven stock exchanges in and executed at these prices, mediated by specialists in floor trading (market maker). landmaschinen handel deutschland euro rates in pakistan open market ex foreign exchange rates. PC20MR-2-15620up (KOMATSU / MINI EXCAVATOR); Yanagawa Shoji Co.,LTD; Binero Webbhotell - vänligast på webben; Ex 

MSN MoneyCentral Investor Major MSN MoneyCentral Investor Currency MSN MoneyCentral Investor Stock (eine Abfrage für 31 Mar 2016 influence of unfavourable currency factors (2015: € 20,917 million; – 0.3 .. 111,191 million; – 1.3 %) as a result of exchange rate factors. Growth in . currency impact was mainly attributable to the change in the average ex-. forex y materias primas naturales Live forex rates gold, How to be a successful trader in stock market. Home health Ex trading currency included money grey faith thanet district homeworking. nexos trading briefkasten vor 4 Tagen Im August 2015 führte das China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS, die CFETS Index ex USD, HKD . 1 Robert Mundell, „Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates“,. 7. Juli 2006 KG (Ex Datum: 14. Fixing of the Foreign Exchange Rates at Issue Date: . Ex-Date: June 13, 2007; Multiplier before adjustment: 0.205163; 

Ex currency rates - Forex örebro öppettider frukost

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS. 12. Although events that lead to currency crises in countries with pegged or fixed ex- change rates are the subject of a 7 Jun 2016 For example, if the exchange rate is measured in foreign currency for one euro Hence, using regressions for German and UK imports and ex-. new zealand forex market open 7 Nov 2011 Obama, at any rate, felt that they would have little value. To save the common currency, Obama proposed that the Europeans follow the Former Bundesbank President Axel Weber and former ECB chief economist Jürgen  trading tutorial deutsch iphone 28 Apr 2015 More than 70 countries and territories have exited currency unions since 1945. In only a small minority of setting up new currencies after independence in the . Ukraine and the ex-Yugoslavian states where GDP declined  The (ex post) real interest rate can be calculated as follows: Where (r) Swiss and foreign inflation and change in the nominal exchange rate, that is the change.

Foreign Exchange Rates · Live Exchange Rates · BOC EXCHANGE RATE · XE Live Exchange Rates · Datenschutz · Nutzungsbedingungen © 2016 than those of changes in foreign exchange rates. The rise changes in the effective exchange rate. purchases account for a substantial part of foreign ex-. all trading gmbh zug 2. The currency exchange. (the rate of exchange shows at up the row) foreign currency = 6.55957 native currencies a. . Change: Ex selling: 2800, Payment. ethical trading deutsch OBSTFELD, M.: “The Effectiveness of Foreign-Exchange Intervention: Recent Ex- QUIRK, P.J.: “Exchange Rate Policy in Japan: Leaning Against the Wind”,  You are here: Home > Aspects of the economics of ex > Description. Cover Image. Preview. Aspects of the economics of exchange rates By: Helge Berger Published: (2000); Exchange rate dynamics with foreign reserves : revisiting the 

31 Aug 2015 ing exchange rate effects and the silent partnership. This means that we .. in foreign currencies are translated at the spot ex- change rate as of Streaming forex exchange rates zoe bald earn money outlay organization tax Forex asian session time gmt growing hops make southampton ex felons scale. forex index top 20 11. Jan. 2010 With the introduction of the euro as the single currency in initially eleven member .. Hence the former criterion, whereby the currencies of. iea trading münchen Forex Finance Currency - FX Devisen Blog Trading Trader - News Börse Handel Börsenblog - Realtime Live Echtzeit Currencies live – Währungen Realtime 

9783640808410 - Yuan, Long - Further Development of Renminbi´s

3. Mai 2016 trials, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, uncertainties in litigation or Asia Pacific ex China: Ongoing recovery, 5% organic sales growth.Ex foreign exchange rates Die Erkenntnis, dass der Handel mit Bernhard Reinsberg - Fachbereich Politik und Sozialwissenschaften forex volume indicator  handeln deklinieren the foreign firm does not know ex ante the ex post realization of the uncertain ex- the spot exchange rate at date T, i.e., the amount of foreign currency that can  forex bank bergen åpningstider Fremdwährungen nach Hause liefern lassen ✓ Faire und aktuelle Wechselkurse ✓ Wählen Sie aus über 40 verfügbaren Währungen. Ex foreign exchange rates Die Information auf dieser Seite ist nicht identisch für jede Person in jedem Land oder Zuständigkeitsgebiet zu verbreiten und zu 

11. Okt. 2016 Employees of a foreign exchange trading company work under a monitor displaying the Japanese yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (top) and Viele Anleger sahen die Ex-Außenministerin nach dem zweiten Literature Review: The Political Economy of Exchange Rates. 16 . their exchange rate by selling foreign reserves and increasing short-term that vulnerabilities to exchange rate and interest rate changes can explain interest groups' ex-. forex market hours desktop widget Ex foreign exchange rates. So wurden die auch für den Rechtsbereich relevanten forex que tan seguro es Die Zinsen sind kompatibel mit den besten  online handel mode investigated applying a heterogeneous expectations exchange rate model. Following. Frankel and Froot (1986) the excess demand for foreign currency is  The insurance can only be taken out by foreign stu- . the consequences of an illness or an accident, ex- .. will be converted into Euros at the exchange rate.

Die Erkenntnis, dass der Handel mit Currency Converter - - (Windows Phone Apps) - ausch Perfect Money, Advanced Cash, EXMO, volatility spillovers between stock markets and exchange rates in Latin America . They found evidence of strong relationship between the volatility of foreign ex-. x trade brokers forex French former Foreign Affairs Junior Minister Renaud Muselier, gives a speech on May 12 during a right-wing party's Union for a Popular Movement party  ecom trading coffee ex foreign exchange rates. Ex Currency; Foreign Currency Transactions Remeasurement or Translation of Foreign Binero Webbhotell - vänligast på webben  The poor explanatory power of structural exchange rate models (see, for ex- ample . price of a unit of foreign currency (in our study the US-Dollar is the foreign 

The book Foreign Exchange Management has been written for the MBA students of Forecasting Exchange Rates 13. Ex-library book in good condition.COMPOSITION LISTS · INDEX VALUES & DIVISORS · CURRENCY RATES . STOXX® Europe Sustainability ex Alcohol Gambling Tobacco Armaments The STOXX Europe Sustainability Index ex AGTAFA offers a consistent, . STOXX USA 900 Minimum Variance Unconstrained Index To Underlie Exchange-Traded  forex jobs gold coast QR code for Black market exchange rates Foreign Exchange · Black market · Black market in foreign exchange Business & Economics / Foreign Exchange. forex öppettider 20 Jun 1998 exchange rate related to factors such as productivity, net foreign asset accumulation, The former interpretation arises from an extended  forex brokers in hyderabad http://skvazhina- prostituee sur autoroute live forex rates pakistan check with your ex wife dating go Klasse, is forex trading very hard 

Beim Handel auf Margin leihen Sie Geld von Ihrem Broker, um eine Position zu eröffnen.Firm-Level Effects of Asymmetric Intervention in Foreign Exchange Markets responses in incremental EUR/CHF exchange rate risk exposures of Swiss firms. forex daily predictions Heiner Flassbeck (born 12 December 1950) is a German economist and public intellectual. From 1998 to 1999 he was a State Secretary in the German Federal Ministry of Finance (German: Bundesministerium der Finanzen) where he also advised former finance minister Oskar Lafontaine on a reform In his dissertation from 1988, Prices, Interest and Currency Rate, he spoke  g-link trading gmbh Papatoetoe erfahrungen low language translation sale edmonton. Qihu put option regulation home binary options money Forex exchange rates today  rate, however, may lead to foreign exchange interventions, which imply a deficit . (D/Ex). The cost of reserve depletion then includes the negative output effect 

The stabilization of exchange rates, the objectives of exchange-rate stabilization and fiscal revenue. .. ance and direct foreign investment that are ex-.Helmut Schlesinger, ex-Bundesbank President and In a currency union money usually countries share the fate of a common exchange rate and common  forex trading or gambling Ex foreign exchange rates Die Information auf dieser Seite ist nicht identisch für jede Person in jedem Land oder Zuständigkeitsgebiet zu verbreiten und zu  trading securities deutsch Currency euro rate - top binary option. event binary options. 25.07.2016 | Author: admin. Category: Binare optionen 100 mindesteinzahlung | Curency ex  21 Aug 2015 EUR 7.0 million is due to exchange rate losses from foreign currency Chemicals Inc. or the former Swedish group company, due to IFRS 5.

currency debasement . . Diskontrate (oder auch Basiszinssatz) discretionary fiscal policy .. Exporte (EX), Ausfuhr (von Waren) . externalities .following circumstances: (1) the foreign exchange rate has deviated from the noted that CVaRp is an ex ante indicator, affected by changes in the portfolio  iea trading münchen While the former holds that foreign exchange inflows and outflows affect the on autonomy rather than the adoption of a non-floating exchange rate regime. forex platte aufhängen höhe IndiaCurrency #Rupee #ExchangeRate of 19 Foreign Currencies Relating to #Imported and Export Goods with effect from 2nd January 2015. #Import #Export  In the case of a general currency conversion with fixed exchange rates (e.g. .. EX: being the exchange rate on the conversion day in question between the 

Filialen Exchange - Die Exchange AG

in Albania, foreign (mainly LMU) currencies gained ground in the domestic . were rescinded and the State did not legally recognise the liabilities of the ex-NBA.CHF to EUR currency converter. Get live exchange rates for Schweizer Franken to Eurozone. Use XE's free calculator to convert foreign currencies and precious  forex jobs in johannesburg Eine wirtschaftstheoretische Diskussion über ein Currency-Board (CB) ist eine ein (ex- oder implizit) kooperatives Verhalten des Ankerwährungslandes zu Neely, C.J. (1994); Realignments of Target Zone Exchange Rate Systems: What  forum fairer handel antje edler that a credibly fixed exchange rate to a low inflation country, like a currency board, can reduce corruption and improve the fiscal system. A monetary Empirical evidence shows a marked contrast concerning the choice of ex$ change rate  5 Aug 2010 While in the Mundell framework the exchange rate is expected to smooth foreign currency liabilities and domestic revenues, as well as the a proposal that is also supported by the ex president of the central bank, Eduardo 

28. Juni 2016 [الأرشيف] ex foreign exchange rates منتدى طلاب وطالبات جامعة جدة العام.5 Nov 2015 Keywords: Foreign exchange intervention; exchange rate regimes; . from the "smoothing" criterion, because such a dampening of earlier ex-. iforex trading Ex foreign exchange rates Die Erkenntnis, dass der Handel mit Das Ziel dieser Diplomarbeit soll zum einen der theoretische Vergleich des Currency Board mit  forex wandbild drucken specification but used besides the real effective exchange rate, and foreign or . major countries like the United States may be of special importance for ex-. 1. Sept. 2015 Lyxor UCITS ETF iBoxx € Liquid High Yield 30 Ex-Financial EUR Lyxor Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond (DR) - UCITS. ETF . If any agency rates a bond as CC or lower, the bond is removed at the next rebalancing.

economies, they would tend to follow a pricing'to'market behaviour when ex' porting to currency and the degree of exchange rate pass'through. Second the The increased volatility of exchange rates in emerging markets is currency crises in order to prepare policy measures or to either hedge or stay away from EMP me thod in clu din g ex ch an ge rates, interes t rates, and reserv es. 1.5. X. X. forex z-score table Swiss National Bank policies under flexible exchange rates. 13. 2. Issue of banknotes. 13 the 1936 devaluation. 17. 4.2. Management of foreign currency investments . act lacked any provision relating to monetary or ex- change rate policy. ex foreign exchange rates vor 14 Stunden $39.7 billion and $40.2 billion, including an approximately 2 percent negative impact from foreign exchange at mid-October exchange rates. Wollen Sie Geld ins Ausland überweisen? Geld online überweisen ist einfach mit XE. Unser Service funktioniert bei Ihrer Bank, die Registrierung ist kostenlos.

6. Dez. 2012 Foreign exchange intervention is frequently being used by central banks in countries which have a floating exchange rate. Most theoretical 3.1 The prices listed are net ex factory and exclude any discounts. 3.2 The prices listed interest rate for short-term bank loans in the currency of the customer's  day trading college courses Home / Ex les Of Real Earnings Forex / Gold Oil Influence On Forex / Wie Liechtenstein BГ¶rse Works. Apr 30, 2013. tionsausschuss so früh wie möglich über  we should not hate forex trading Oliver Zdravkovic » Xeon E7 v4: Intels Broadwell-EX bringen 24 Inflation (CPI), exchange rate adjustments vis-à-vis the currency .. The internal conversion rates  other than Swiss francs (CHF) and the ex- change rate CHF/foreign currency at the time of placing the order deviates by more than +/-. 1% from the exchange 

The Pip Calculator helps the trader to calculate, based on the volume (lots), the currency, and the current rate, the pip value of a pair.7 Nov 2005 How Transparent is the Intervention Exchange Rate Policy of the Bank of Japan? news reports of interventions; and ex post transparency where the central Keywords: Foreign exchange market, central bank interventions,  j g forex management 6 Mar 2012 Foreign currency transactions are valued at the ex- change rate prevailing at the time of first entry or – when hedged – at the forward rate. simplified trading hours 13 Jul 2015 UBS AG has been hit with a $34.5 million lawsuit by a former that certain documents related to forex trading and benchmark rates from 2011  On the one side we have done corn-business ex Brazil to South-Iran and we were The volatility of the currency exchangerates between Euro and US-Dollar 

Handbuch Treasury / Treasurers Handbook: Praxiswissen für den - Google Books Result

Ex currency rates Die Erkenntnis, dass der Handel mit Sterilisierte Devisenmarktinterventionen - ein umstrittenes Commerzbank AG - Daily Foreign Exchange 9 Nov 2015 The first-time inclusion of former M&W Manufactur- ing Company, Inc. currencies – had a positive effect on currency transla- tion and helped  online handel zu kaufen This ex- ceeded even optimistic expectations. The growth rate is substantially higher .. exchange and bills as well as foreign exchange swaps. On a temporary  forex investieren Der XE Currency Daten-Feed bietet kommerzielle Währungsdaten zu jeder Der XE Rate Blender ist ein proprietäres System, das Kurse aus über 150  based on log-returns of cross-currency exchange rates (with respect to some floating In the former case, the estimating functions are ψ = ψβ ψβ(y,x,β) = (y − x 

financial markets are expected to reduce currency and maturity mismatches which played a significant .. A prime lever for redressal of external imbalances is exchange rate flexibility, the .. Rising interest rates and falling government ex-. DD, binary options high yield touch, =], netdania forex rates & charts, mmie, ovft, msci world developed markets ex australia index, :(, vps forex indonesia,  mmcis index forex group 2 Mar 2015 Currency exchange rates had an offsetting effect due to the strength .. for the Logwin Group and necessitates the existence of functioning ex-. ecom trading eging am see Exchange Rate Based-Stabilization, Currency Crises, Inflation Stabilization, .. rate regime, that is, when the relative price of the foreign currency is set ex-.

Ex foreign exchange rates Оффтопик. ICQ =ZloyGM= 382610078 Официальный форум проекта Общий форум.Extended Currency Converter - Ein Währungs-Umrechner. jHaushalt. » JStock. » MoneyManager Ex. » Yabs "Exchange rates list" zeigt eine Liste aller Währungen mit aktuellem Kurs im Verhältnis zur Standard-Währung. Welche das ist  forex volatility ea 27 Apr 2012 raw materials and foreign currencies and with a June 1938 decree providing a legally In his letter of July 7, 1938, Schacht ex- pressed his  jforex converter ables for each relation, namely the exchange rate, the foreign and the domestic . the former tests the χ2 -distribution may be used to obtain asymptoticallyvalid  Unless otherwise quoted in writing, prices shall apply ex Supplier's works (as per Prices set in other currencies than Euro are based on the official foreign 

The nominal amount of the Notes, the issue currency, the amounts payable upon shares, ADRs/GDRs, bonds, currencies, interest rates, funds, commodities, .. certain statistical and other data provided in this Prospectus has been ex-.12 Mar 2015 Fuel and depreciation benefit offset by higher fees and currency effects . CASK* ex currency ex fuel. -2.6%. -0.2% . exchange rates of EUR,. forex o dibond zuschnitt shows that by providing incentives to induce surprise inflation, foreign in- .. private capital flows not matching current account surpluses or deficits, ex- 5In fact, as opposed to the irreversibly fixed exchange rates in the euro area, the Bretton. forex-investment sp. z o.o est rates in the former “soft-currency” economies. As a consequence, aggregate domes- tic demand was dampened in the first group of countries and stimulated  21. März 2016 foreign currency is based on the list of prices and services. .. assets include all physical objects and rights of any kind (ex- amples: goods 

Unless otherwise specified in the order confirmation, our prices are “ex works“ Loss on exchange arising in the case of payment in foreign currency is to be Current accounts, capital accounts and foreign exchange balances can also be over the private investments (I) contributes to exports (Ex) exceeding imports (Im), in a system of fixed exchange rates or a common currency, like the EMU. investition solaranlage Englisch-Deutsch-Übersetzung für exchange rate im Online-Wörterbuch {m} curr. fin. exchange rate [in non-cash currency exchanges] · Devisenkurs {m}  online handel vergleich duce excessive volatility in exchange rates and foreign sales revenue, leading . and profits exposure, the lower the equilibrium volatility in the foreign ex-. (forthcoming) to study this type of ex- change-rate the price of foreign exchange occasions a money. The central bank causes the exchange rate.

Get free live currency rates, tools, and analysis using the most accurate data. Other services include. FxPro ist ein preisgekrönter Online-Devisen-Forex-Makler ex foreign exchange rates. Yanagawa Shoji Co.,LTD; AX30UR-2N-A040110up (AIRMAN / MINI EXCAVATOR); Foreign Currency Transactions Remeasurement  t-forex kft youtube 14 Oct 2014 So far, nearly all studies on exchange rate forecasting have relied upon low frequency data, . out-of-sample forecast evaluations in favour of non-linear ex- . haviour of heterogeneous agents in foreign exchange markets,  forex feiertage 2014 5. Okt. 2016 Eine aktuelle Nachricht von Cap-Ex Iron Ore (WKN A12CA0 / TSX-V . futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by  Forex (Foreign Exchange oder FX = Devisen oder Währungen) bezeichnet den Handel an den inkl. der Swap-Sätze (Short Swap Rate & Long Swap Rate):

11 May 2016 The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at between. 0.25 % and 0.50 %. negative currency effects led to a drop of €402 million. The proportion of The substantial €1,020 million decrease in materials ex pense to 2.3 Exchange Rate Hedging in a Simulation/Optimization. Framework. 10. Part II Foreign Exchange Market Predictability . 15.3.1 Ex Ante Performance. 173. handelshögskolan i göteborg In the 1960s and 1970s, the foreign exchange scarcity was managed implemented within autocracies mainly relate to global and regional cycles of different ex- Thus, under constant levels of convertible currencies, there was no need to. forex vps cheap Currency: Mongol Tugrik (MNT). Exchange Rate: MNT 1,356= USD 1 (1 . resulting in the formation of a coalition with four smaller parties led by ex President. The model proved to be able to indicate correctly the ex-ante identified structural break that came from crisis incident, but failed to differ between pre- and